Congress’s continuously falling graph, clear in Maharashtra, half in Jharkhand, where did it go wrong?

Once upon a time, only Congress used to have a strong say in the politics of Maharashtra. Be it Yashwantrao Chavan, the first Chief Minister of the state, or Sharad Pawar, till the time he formed his own party, the faces of the CMs kept changing, but the Congress flag continued to fly. But the BJP-Sena alliance breached this strong fort of the Congress in 1995 and the Congress emerged from it after a few years. But it is not the same as before. Saturday brought a situation of confusion for Congress. The Grand Old Party of the country, which took its tally of seats in the Lok Sabha elections to 99, after its defeat in Haryana a month ago, now the trends in Maharashtra and Jharkhand show that once again the path is not favorable for it. The trends so far show that Congress may have to face defeat in Maharashtra. It was leading on 19 seats at 12 noon. Another state Jharkhand is emerging as a weak link. The only saving grace is that with the heavyweight performance of its ally JMM in Jharkhand, the India Bloc seems to be crossing the majority mark. If the trends are correct then this is bad, in fact terrible news for Congress. Especially in Maharashtra where Congress on its own and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) together defeated BJP and Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha elections.

In the Lok Sabha elections, Congress contested 17 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra and managed to win 13 seats. Talking about the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress had won only one seat in Maharashtra, but this year it won 13 seats. This not only increased the confidence of Congress but also increased its bargaining power with its allies. Many had argued that the protest came after an aggressive campaign by the Congress and the MVA that the BJP, which retains power at the Center with a majority of over 400, could change the Constitution and weaken the reservation architecture. Along with this, strong advocacy of caste census and demand to break the limit of 50% reservation was also included.

Congress again campaigned in Maharashtra with the same slogans and themes. Jittery party leaders on Saturday said the Lok Sabha elections had perhaps given people an opportunity to express their anger and they were ready to go back to the NDA. A senior Congress leader was quoted by the Indian Express as saying that the BJP spent huge amounts of money. At no moment could we have anticipated that this was going to be a one-wave election, we had never imagined it. Of course, there could be many reasons for this. The coordination of our seats was not correct. All the leaders in the alliance were striving for the post of Chief Minister. But it seems that the Girl Sister Scheme has had a huge impact.

Big hopes were from Vidarbha region, a cotton belt with 62 assembly seats and 10 Lok Sabha constituencies. BJP could win only two seats in the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress had won five seats and its allies NCP and Shiv Sena (UBT) had won one seat each. The Congress has traditionally been strong in this region, but the BJP has made major inroads in the last two decades. In 2014, BJP won 44 out of 62 seats in Vidarbha. In 2019, its tally dropped to 29 seats, reducing its total seats. The Congress was confident of revival in Vidarbha and considered the Lok Sabha results as the first step. But Saturday’s trends have given it the lie.